The Dynamics of Trade Relations between Ukraine and Romania: Modelling and Forecasting

The article examines the monthly dynamics of exports, imports and balance trade between Ukraine Romania in period from 2005 to 2021. Time series 2015 2021 were used for modelling forecasting (since date European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement took effect). Adequate models Box-Jenkins methodology built: additive with seasonal component ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) ARIMAS (or SARIMA) Holt-Winters exponential smoothing a dampened trend. Forecasting fourth quarter first 2022 completed. forecast results showed small relative error compared actual data. Thus, when countries using model, prediction errors were: October – 1.3%; November 2.6%; December 0.4%.